What 570 Experts Predict the Future of Work Will Look Like
Takeaways:
This article’s three writers conducted a survey of 485 of articles related to the future of work. Based on questions & conclusions formed from the survey of those articles, they then polled 570 experts from tech, economics, and writing/journalism about their views of the future. Specifically, they asked these experts to name the year that specific projections would finally become reality.
Here are their findings:
Further polling leads to a conversation about how three distinct groups (tech entrepreneurs, economists, and authors/journalists) relate to each other as they predict the future.
Tech entrepreneurs tended to be radical optimists about the future, while economists were more skeptical & cautious. Authors and journalists held more pessimistic attitudes. Importantly, these three groups were unshakably convinced that their predictions about the future of work were right and that the others were wrong — and even preposterous.
Why There Are Differences in Beliefs About the Future of Work: Groups tend to take in information from shared or similar sources, which insulates it from other perspectives. Being open to other group’s perspectives is important; embracing uncertainty and competing scenarios is in fact essential to long-term strategic planning.
The Future Is What We Make It: The article’s writers believe their study shows that the future is not yet set in stone, and that it is impossible to determine who is right about the future of work. The question is not, “What will the future of work be like?” but rather, “What do we want the future to be like?” This reframes the future-of-work question as an arena for values, politics, ideology, and imagination, instead of a set of trends that can objectively be predicted.
The article ends on a resonant note: it is important to be attentive to and active in discussion about the future of work. This ensures that the future of work will unfold within a social and democratic dialogue. Remember: the future is what we make it.
By Nicky Dries, Joost Luyckx, and Philip Rogiers for The Harvard Business Review
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