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Five takeaways:

1. This article explores Bayes Theorem, which provides a useful framework for integrating probability into your daily decision making.
2. If a friend rolls a dice and covers it, and asks you to guess the #, your chance is 1/6. If they then say that it is an even #, your chance becomes 1/3. If they then say that it is not 4, you know you have two possible guesses and a 50% chance of guessing correctly. You have used new information to assess the situation and make the most educated guess possible: a Bayes-ian analysis.
3. The Bayes Theorem involves conscious use of all relevant, up-to-date information in building probability as you make a decision. It forces us to pause and consciously open our thought process beyond the initial gut reaction.
4. Using Bayes Theorem can be helpful in reminding you that immediate perception is imperfect. It reminds you to take a step back from initial judgment and assess all contexts involved in a decision.
5. Someone who rejects Bayes-ian theory instinctively rejects new information, relying on preconceived notions. They are less likely to change their mind on anything, and thus more likely to lose out on productive discourse and decision making.

From Fs Blog:
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Five takeaways:

1. This piece warns us against anchoring our happiness to a far-off goal– especially those attained at significant personal sacrifice– because there is no guarantee that it will bring you long term satisfaction.
2. Dreams and goals are valuable to us because they give us a metric for measuring progress. But Brooks argues that happiness in life is derived from progress, not from specific outcomes.
3. Researchers have said that “when a goal is a true end point for progress, the cessation of forward motion can lead to a feeling of emptiness” once a goal is attained. This might be called the “post-achievement hangover.”
4. To make sure you are channeling your goals positively, ask yourself three questions about your journey to accomplishment:
   • Are you enjoying the journey?
   • Is the reward for achieving your goal something you truly want?
   • Can you take one step at a time?
5. One should always ask themselves: why is this my goal in the first place? If they cannot really answer that– it is time to move on with life.

From Arthur C. Brooks at The Atlantic:
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