Predicting the Future with Bayes Theorem
Five takeaways:
- This article explores Bayes Theorem, which provides a useful framework for integrating probability into your daily decision making.
- If a friend rolls a dice and covers it, and asks you to guess the #, your chance is 1/6. If they then say that it is an even #, your chance becomes 1/3. If they then say that it is not 4, you know you have two possible guesses and a 50% chance of guessing correctly. You have used new information to assess the situation and make the most educated guess possible: a Bayes-ian analysis.
- The Bayes Theorem involves conscious use of all relevant, up-to-date information in building probability as you make a decision. It forces us to pause and consciously open our thought process beyond the initial gut reaction.
- Using Bayes Theorem can be helpful in reminding you that immediate perception is imperfect. It reminds you to take a step back from initial judgment and assess all contexts involved in a decision.
- Someone who rejects Bayes-ian theory instinctively rejects new information, relying on preconceived notions. They are less likely to change their mind on anything, and thus more likely to lose out on productive discourse and decision making.
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